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                Call for Papers: Plausibility in Futures Studies
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>Journal: Futures: The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures
<br>Studies
<br>
<br>Open for submissions from March 1st 2018.
<br>Closing date for new submissions: August 31st 2018
<br>
<br>
<br>Guest editors:
<br>
<br>Yashar Saghai, Johns Hopkins University and the
<br>Millennium Project
<br>
<br>Nele
<br>Fischer, Freie Universitt Berlin
<br>
<br>Sascha
<br>Dannenberg, Freie Universitt
<br>Berlin
<br>
<br>Contact:
<br>plausiblefutures2018@gmail.com
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal Futures seeks
<br>to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. As part
<br>of the 50th anniversary celebrations of the journal, we call for a range of
<br>papers that deal with one of the central theoretical and practical issues in
<br>Futures Studies which is what we mean by plausible: What is a plausible
<br>future?
<br>
<br>The concept of plausibility has a long history in Futures Studies and
<br>practice. Indeed, there is consensus around the view that the goal of Futures
<br>Studies should not be to merely focus on probable futures and quantitatively
<br>evaluate their consequences. If our goal is to open the mind to alternative
<br>futures and foster creative thinking, we might want to consider a range of
<br>possible futures whose likelihood cannot be determined.
<br>
<br>But sufficiently complex problems with a long-term temporal scale generate
<br>many possible futures. For pragmatic reasons, we cannot explore them all, and
<br>need to narrow down our investigation to a subset of possible futures that
<br>remain challenging and are relevant to the problem at hand. Yet these criteria
<br>(challenge and relevance) on their own may still be insufficient to yield a
<br>small number of significant alternative futures to explore. Several criteria
<br>have been put forward, but perhaps none has been so ubiquitously appealed to
<br>than plausibility. In Futures Studies, plausible and implausible futures are
<br>routinely distinguished. However, both in theory and practice, the criteria
<br>for characterizing those futures remain either vague, objectionable, or
<br>implicit. In practice, the criteria used to assess plausibility of a future
<br>often boil down to its degree of deviation from the most probable futures.
<br>Plausibility, then, turns into a redundant concept and does not help to fill
<br>the gap between the narrow space of probable futures and the broad space of
<br>possible futures.
<br>
<br>The goal of this issue of Futures is to make decisive progress in addressing
<br>the problem of plausibility. Is this a notion that can be pinned down and be
<br>made explicit thanks to concepts and tools borrowed from other disciplines? Or
<br>does plausibility have to remain partly implicit and based on impossible to
<br>fully articulate background knowledge and interests? Does it have to be
<br>abandoned altogether and replaced by other notions that could fulfill the same
<br>functions?
<br>
<br>The contributions we expect for this issue of Futures should endeavor to
<br>advance the debate over the theory and practical use of plausibility in
<br>Futures Studies in novel ways and offer concrete pathways to make theoretical
<br>progress or change in futures practice. This special issue builds on three
<br>pillars: (1) Futures Studies practice; (2) Futures studies theory; (3)
<br>relevant work on plausibility in other fields and social practices that could
<br>help to rethink plausibility in Futures Studies. Thus, possible topics that we
<br>encourage include, but are not limited to:
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>1.     Plausibility in Futures Studies Practice
<br>
<br>Papers could address the role of plausibility in different epistemic,
<br>cultural, social, and political communities using Futures Studies. Is the
<br>notion of a plausible future equally important within all of them? How is it
<br>is construed, used, and challenged, for example, vis--vis surprising
<br>developments? Is plausibility deployed differently in high stake contexts
<br>where value pluralism about desirable futures prevails, such as societal
<br>futures, technological futures, the futures of food, the futures of
<br>governance? Do political or economic assumptions about the feasibility of some
<br>visions of the future (ideals, utopias), or the lack of desirability of other
<br>visions (dystopias, catastrophes) influence plausibility judgments? Does
<br>plausibility contribute to consensus-building or are some familiar clichs
<br>about emotionally resonating futures reinforced through participatory futures
<br>processes? Are there cases where a Futures Study team deliberately selected
<br>implausible futures they deemed worth exploring? What did they learn from such
<br>experience and what were the outcomes of their study, how was their choice
<br>perceived by their peers, study commissioners and users?
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>2.    Plausibility in Futures Studies Theory, Methods, and Approaches
<br>
<br>
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<br>Papers could examine plausibility in Futures Studies with respect to a variety
<br>of theories, methods, and approaches in Futures Studies, and build on general
<br>theories, as well as more specific scholarship e.g., in the wake of Cynthia
<br>Selins Plausibility Project 2009-2012. See
<br>https://www.cynthiaselin.com/plausibility-project.html. For instance, how is
<br>plausibility theorized in modelling (boundary conditions), in contrast to
<br>scenario-building or visioning? Do some theorists provide tools for better
<br>conceptions of plausibility or compellingly argue for its dismissal? Should
<br>plausibility be understood as a descriptive notion or as a normative one? Is
<br>plausibility an attribute of worlds, events, entities, or explanations? How do
<br>various conceptions of plausible futures relate to tensions between realist
<br>and constructivist ontologies in Futures Studies?
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>3.    Transferring Notions of Plausibility from Other Fields
<br>
<br>
<br>None of us wants to reinvent the wheel. Relevant fields that have worked out
<br>the notion of plausibilityindependently of Futures Studies include history,
<br>law, economics, STS, anthropology, sociology, narratology, linguistics,
<br>cognitive science, psychology, philosophy, informal logic, urban planning,
<br>architecture, and design. Could rival or complementary notions of plausibility
<br>developed to answer other questions shed light on debates in Futures Studies?
<br>For instance, could pluralistic theories of explanations in philosophy help us
<br>to evaluate the plausibility of different explanations of how we could get
<br>from here to a possible future? Does narratology offer us tools to rethink
<br>plausibilitys aesthetic function in addition to its epistemic one? How could
<br>ways of conceiving and reconstructing plausible pasts from dispersed traces
<br>inform the construction of plausible futures?
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>Deadlines and submission instructions
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>It is advisable to discuss an abstract of the paper with the Guest Editors
<br>before submitting the full paper to the journal
<br>
<br>Contact the Guest Editors at
<br>plausiblefutures2018@gmail.com
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>       Papers may be submitted from March 1st 2018
<br>
<br>       Deadline for submissions of new papers is August 31st 2018
<br>
<br>       Expected date of online publication of papers is 3-4 weeks from final
<br>acceptance
<br>
<br>       Each accepted paper will be published in print in the next available
<br>volume after acceptance.
<br>
<br>       When all papers for the Special Issue are accepted, a virtual special
<br>issue will be available online containing all the final papers.
<br>
<br>       Expected final date of Special Issue is February 2019.
<br>
<br>Please read the guidance to authors before submitting:
<br>https://www.elsevier.com/journals/futures/0016-3287/guide-for-authors
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>Submit papers online at: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/futures/
<br>
<br>       Click on Submit Your Paper
<br>
<br>       Log into the Elsevier online submission system EVISE, registering if
<br>you are not already registered.
<br>
<br>       On the page titled Enter Manuscript Information:
<br>
<br>       Select type of Issue: SI: Plausibility in Futures Studies
<br>
<br>       Article type: (normally full-length article)
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>About the Journal:
<br>
<br>Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned
<br>with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and
<br>technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet, individuals
<br>and humanity.
<br>
<br>Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal publishes new
<br>contributions to knowledge which examine possible and alternative futures of
<br>all human endeavours, as well as humankind's multiple anticipatory
<br>relationships with its futures. Futures seeks to promote divergent and
<br>pluralistic visions and ideas about the future based on research and scholarly
<br>reasoning.
<br>
<br>
<br>_________________
<br>
<br>Yashar Saghai, M.A., Ph.D.
<br>
<br>Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics, Research Scholar and Associate
<br>Faculty
<br>
<br>The Millennium Project, Senior Scholar
<br>
<br>ysaghai@jhu.edu
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>Websites:
<br>
<br>yasharsaghai.com
<br>
<br>Grappling with the Futures Symposium
<br>(Harvard and BU, April 29-30, 2018)?
<br>
<br>
<br>______________________________
<br>Yashar Saghai, M.A., Ph.D.
<br>Research Scholar and Associate Faculty
<br>Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics
<br>Deering Hall 201 | 1809 Ashland Ave | Baltimore MD 21205
<br>410-614-0016 | ysaghai@jhu.edu
<br>Website: yasharsaghai.com
<br>_______________________________________________
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